Current:Home > MyHere's where inflation stands today — and why it's raising hope about the economy-LoTradeCoin
Here's where inflation stands today — and why it's raising hope about the economy
View Date:2025-01-18 13:02:00
Inflation got a little higher last month — but not enough to set off alarms.
Consumer prices in July were up 3.2% from a year ago, according to data released Thursday, driven in part by rising rent, gas and grocery prices. The increase came after the annual inflation rate had fallen steadily for the previous 12 months.
Despite the rise in the headline rate, details in the report show inflation continuing to moderate. Stocks rallied on the news, which bolstered hopes for a "soft landing," in which the Federal Reserve brings inflation under control without tipping the economy into recession.
Here are four things to know about the latest report on inflation.
What was so encouraging about the latest inflation report?
Although consumer prices rose more in July on an annual basis than they did in June, that shouldn't be read as inflation gaining steam. Rather, it's the result of a single month of flat prices a year ago dropping out of the calculation.
Focusing on more recent months shows price hikes continuing to moderate. In fact, over the last three months, prices have climbed at an annual rate of just under 2%. And some prices are actually coming down.
So what is up — and what is down in price?
Goods overall are getting cheaper, with some exceptions like gasoline and groceries.
Used car prices were down last month, and they are expected to keep falling. Air fares dropped more than 8% in July for the second month in a row.
Rent is still going up, but not as fast as it had been. The economy is also seeing a moderation in the price of services – things like getting your car fixed or going to the dentist.
Service prices are largely driven by wages, so they tend to be stickier than other prices. The big question is whether service inflation will come down enough to bring overall inflation under control.
Why is Wall Street so encouraged about inflation?
The inflation data was within what Wall Street had forecast, and it reinforces hope that inflation is easing.
At the same time, other recent data is showing a sturdier economy than many had expected. The labor market, in particular, is holding up well despite the Fed's aggressive increases in interest rates since last year.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped more than 400 points in the first hour of trading Thursday, although most of those gains were later reversed. The Dow closed up 52 points, or 0.15%.
Stephen Juneau, a senior economist at Bank of America, says he's encouraged about the trajectory of inflation.
"I think the direction of travel right now is really moving in the right direction, and is encouraging on the inflation front," Juneau said.
How could the inflation data impact the Fed's thinking?
Even before Thursday's inflation news, markets were betting the Fed would leave interest rates unchanged at its next meeting after raising rates aggressively since last year.
Oddsmakers see that as even more likely after this report.
But nothing's certain and additional economic data will determine the Fed's next action. The Fed doesn't meet until late September and there are still areas of concern, including higher oil prices which are driving up prices at the gas pump.
How could inflation impact households?
Although inflation is easing, it's still pretty high. Even if the Fed doesn't raise rates higher, they're likely to remain elevated for an extended period.
That has an impact on many people's pocketbooks since households are paying more for mortgages and credit cards, for example.
And the economy may be looking sturdier, but there's still a risk the U.S. could enter a recession.
China's economy, for example, is showing signs of slowing down significantly, which could impact the global economy at a time when the U.S. is taking a tougher stance against the Asian country.
veryGood! (63958)
Related
- Anti-abortion advocates press Trump for more restrictions as abortion pill sales spike
- Fiery New Year’s Day crash kills 2 and injures 5 following upstate NY concert, police investigating
- Hong Kong activist publisher Jimmy Lai pleads not guilty to sedition and collusion charges
- Gypsy Rose Blanchard Speaks Out in First Videos Since Prison Release
- Opinion: Chris Wallace leaves CNN to go 'where the action' is. Why it matters
- It's over: 2023 was Earth's hottest year, experts say.
- Sophie Turner Calls 2023 the Year of the Girlies After Joe Jonas Breakup
- Hack, rizz, slay and other cringe-worthy words to avoid in 2024
- Pennsylvania House Republicans pick new floor leader after failing to regain majority
- Rose Bowl expert predictions as Alabama and Michigan meet in College Football Playoff
Ranking
- As the transition unfolds, Trump eyes one of his favorite targets: US intelligence
- 2024 Winter Classic winners and losers: Joey Daccord makes history, Vegas slide continues
- You Won’t Disengage With This Real Housewives of Salt Lake City Gift Guide
- Rohingya refugees in Sri Lanka protest planned closure of U.N. office, fearing abandonment
- Suspect arrested after deadly Tuskegee University homecoming shooting
- A missing person with no memory: How investigators solved the cold case of Seven Doe
- Easter, MLK Day, Thanksgiving and other key dates to know for 2024 calendar
- Members of Germany’s smallest governing party vote to stay in Scholz’s coalition, prompting relief
Recommendation
-
Jelly Roll goes to jail (for the best reason) ahead of Indianapolis concert
-
Anderson Cooper on freeing yourself from the burden of grief
-
135th Rose Parade boasts floral floats, sunny skies as California tradition kicks off the new year
-
Heavy Russian missile attacks hit Ukraine’s 2 largest cities
-
Florida State can't afford to fire Mike Norvell -- and can't afford to keep him
-
Low-Effort Products To Try if Your 2024 New Year’s Resolution Is to Work Out, but You Hate Exercise
-
Fighting in southern Gaza city after Israel says it is pulling thousands of troops from other areas
-
Ian Ziering details 'unsettling confrontation' with bikers on New Year's Eve that led to attack